The digital advertising market is experiencing a distinct cooling trend in cost inflation. Although baseline CPCs remain stable, year-over-year growth is steadily decelerating across all channels. Search CPC growth cooled to near 0% by Q2 2026, while Shopping inflation slowed from roughly 16% to 10%, signaling stabilizing competition and a less volatile bidding environment.
The 365-day line chart reveals a highly mature, saturated e-commerce landscape where Search and Performance Max (PMax) command premium, converging CPCs (~€0.38–€0.42). Initially, one might assume runaway inflation across all channels. However, the prolonged plateau in Search CPCs and the synchronized post-holiday trough in January 2026 challenge this assumption. Advertisers are hitting strict efficiency ceilings, refusing to absorb higher costs without guaranteed ROAS. The distinct November 2025 peak for PMax and Shopping highlights aggressive Q4 (Black Friday/Cyber Monday) bidding, while Search remains surprisingly flat during this promotional window.
The YoY quarterly bar charts heavily complicate the short-term line chart momentum. While Standard Shopping appears to be the cheapest channel in absolute terms (~€0.28–€0.36), it is experiencing explosive, albeit decelerating, YoY inflation (16% in Q3 2025 down to 10% in Q2 2026). Conversely, Search—the most expensive channel—shows total YoY stagnation (dropping to 0% growth by Q1 2026). PMax sits in the middle, stabilizing at ~6% YoY growth.
Several external forces are dictating these trends:
The divergence between these three channels exposes a critical shift in platform mechanics and advertiser behavior: