Median Shopping impr. share

Macro-Trend Analysis: Shopping Impression Share

The Apex Predator vs. The Squeeze

• Amazon’s Unshakable Dominance: Despite a deliberate, experimental blackout in Summer 2025, Amazon consistently commands the auction, rebounding immediately to capture 35–40% impression share. Its peaks during Q4 2025 and mid-2026 highlight unmatched budget elasticity and seasonal retail dominance.
• Temu’s Fading Blitzkrieg: Temu’s aggressive, venture-backed market push peaked in mid-2025 (~27% share), briefly threatening Amazon’s baseline. However, its trajectory reveals a steady 2026 decline, suggesting a strategic pivot from “buying the market” at a loss to prioritizing profitability or facing ad-spend fatigue.

Legacy Bleed & Challenger Stagnation

• eBay’s Slow Attrition: eBay exhibits a continuous downward trajectory, dropping from ~18% to ~12%. It is being actively squeezed out of the mid-tier auction by aggressive cross-border pricing and ad spend from Asian marketplaces.
• AliExpress’s Range-Bound Reality: AliExpress maintains a stagnant 12–18% share. Unlike Temu’s volatile peaks, AliExpress relies on a stabilized, highly targeted spend strategy, capturing price-sensitive consumers without engaging in unsustainable bidding wars.

Market Drivers & Auction Dynamics

• Who is Buying the Market? In 2025, Temu aggressively bought impression share to force market entry. By 2026, the auction normalized. Amazon is now leveraging its massive structural advantages to hold the top tier, while Temu, AliExpress, and eBay cannibalize each other in the 12–16% lower-tier bracket.
• External Forces: The divergence is driven by shifting capital allocation. Temu’s cooled momentum indicates a reduction in subsidized customer acquisition costs (CAC), while Amazon’s sustained peaks reflect high-converting, intent-driven PPC efficiency that low-cost challengers cannot replicate long-term.