The advertising market is steadily cooling after a period of intense competition. While absolute CPCs climbed over the past year, year-over-year inflation has sharply decelerated. Shopping CPCs, which surged over 13% in late 2025, cooled to a 1% decline by the third quarter of 2026, signaling stabilizing auction dynamics and easing cost pressures across all channels.
The 365-day trajectory reveals a fiercely competitive e-commerce landscape, though absolute CPCs challenge traditional seasonal assumptions. While Performance Max (PMax) and Standard Shopping exhibit expected Q4 2025 peaks driven by holiday demand, Search CPCs remain surprisingly flat during this period. Instead, Search experiences a delayed surge, peaking in June 2026. This suggests retail competition dominates Q4, while non-retail or high-intent generic queries drive mid-year Search inflation.
The YoY quarterly data introduces a critical contradiction to the line chart’s short-term momentum. While absolute CPCs for Shopping and Search climb steadily throughout H1 2026, their YoY inflation rate is drastically cooling. Standard Shopping plummets from a +13% YoY increase in Q4 2025 to a -1% deflation by Q3 2026. PMax follows a similar cooling trend (+7% down to +1%). This indicates that while month-over-month costs are rising, the aggressive, multi-year trend of unchecked CPC inflation has finally stabilized.
Several external forces dictate these shifts:
The divergence between channels highlights shifting advertiser behavior and platform mechanics: