Median Shopping impr. share

Shopping Impression Share: Macro-Trend Analysis

1. Auction Dictator vs. Aggressive Challenger

• Amazon’s Structural Dominance: Amazon dictates the auction ceiling, maintaining a ~35% baseline. Its deliberate summer 2025 experiment (dropping to 0%) exposed market elasticity: Temu immediately absorbed the vacuum, surging to a peak ~28% share. This proves Temu is aggressively poised to capture available inventory, heavily subsidizing bids to “buy” market share whenever legacy players step back.
• Q4 Seasonal Dominance: Amazon’s sharp recovery and peak in November 2025 (>40%) highlights its unmatched seasonal conversion efficiency and budget elasticity during peak retail periods.

2. Legacy Stagnation vs. Low-Cost Momentum

• eBay’s Flatline: As a legacy player, eBay exhibits a stagnant trajectory (~18-20%). It relies on historical account efficiency rather than aggressive growth, showing zero momentum to challenge Amazon or fend off Temu’s rise.
• Divergent Challengers: While Temu actively contests the #2 position through massive, venture-backed ad spend and cross-border pushes, AliExpress remains a passive participant, hovering steadily at the bottom of the primary cohort (~15-18%).

3. Market Drivers & Competitor Divergence

• Exploiting Price Sensitivity: Temu’s sustained >20% share reflects a deliberate strategy to exploit shifting consumer price sensitivity. Unlike eBay’s defensive posture, Temu’s auction behavior is highly opportunistic and reactive to Amazon’s presence.
• Bifurcated Auction Dynamics: The Shopping auction is clearly stratified. Amazon controls the macro-weather, eBay maintains a defensive floor, and Temu acts as the aggressive disruptor. Temu’s willingness to operate at a loss to acquire customers forces higher CPCs across the board, fundamentally altering the competitive baseline for all retailers.