Median Shopping impr. share

Macro-Trend Competitive Analysis: Shopping Impression Share

Legacy Dominance vs. Challenger Momentum

• Amazon’s Unshakable Core: Despite a deliberate, temporary withdrawal from the auction in Summer 2025, Amazon’s baseline dominance remains unchallenged, consistently capturing 30–45% impression share. Its rapid recovery and subsequent Q4 2025 peak highlight unmatched auction leverage and seasonal dominance.
• The eBay Bleed: Conversely, legacy counterpart eBay exhibits a steady, undeniable decay, sliding from ~18% to ~12%. eBay is steadily being priced out of the Shopping auction, unable to match the CPCs sustained by Amazon’s conversion rates and Temu’s aggressive bids.

The Low-Cost Challenger Trajectory

• Temu’s Cooling Engine: Temu initially commanded a formidable 20–27% share, acting as the primary beneficiary during Amazon’s Summer 2025 experiment. However, Temu’s momentum steadily degrades throughout 2026, dropping below 16%. This trajectory suggests a strategic pivot from aggressive, venture-backed market-buying to CAC stabilization and profitability.
• AliExpress Stagnation: AliExpress maintains a flat 15–18% share, failing to capitalize on market fluctuations. This indicates a rigid bidding strategy reliant on baseline cross-border demand rather than aggressive customer acquisition.

Market Drivers & Auction Dynamics

• Who is ‘Buying’ the Market? Amazon is actively defending and expanding its territory, leveraging fulfillment superiority to sustain top-tier bids. Temu “bought” the market early on with loss-leader bidding to force entry, but their 2026 decline indicates this velocity was unsustainable long-term.
• External Forces: The divergence in trajectories reflects shifting consumer behavior. While inflation initially fueled Temu’s rapid rise via price-sensitive shoppers, Amazon’s Q4 surges and 2026 growth suggest consumers ultimately revert to legacy players offering superior shipping and trust. The Shopping auction is increasingly defined by Amazon’s structural dominance and Temu’s fluctuating ad-spend injections, leaving mid-tier players starved for volume.