Median Shopping impr. share

Macro-Trend Analysis: Shopping Impression Share (2025-2026)

Legacy Dominance vs. Challenger Aggression

• Amazon’s Resilient Moat: Amazon maintains a commanding 30–40% baseline impression share. Despite a deliberate summer 2025 bidding experiment (briefly dropping to 0%), it instantly reclaimed its dominant position, peaking at ~42% during Q4 2025. This confirms Amazon dictates auction dynamics rather than reacting to them.
• Temu’s Sustained Market Purchase: Temu firmly holds the #2 position (20–25%). Notably, during Amazon’s summer pullback, Temu immediately absorbed the vacuum, peaking at ~27%. This indicates aggressive, likely loss-leading ad spend designed to capture any available impression share, capitalizing on macroeconomic consumer price sensitivity.

Momentum Divergence

• Stagnation of Legacy Peers: Unlike Amazon, eBay exhibits a completely flat trajectory (~17–18%). This lack of volatility suggests a mature, highly constrained ROAS-driven bidding strategy, lacking the aggressive growth mandate of newer entrants.
• The Low-Cost Squeeze: AliExpress mirrors eBay’s volume but shows higher volatility, occasionally spiking to challenge Temu. Furthermore, the abrupt Q1 2026 entry of Joybuy (capturing ~15% instantly) highlights the relentless cross-border push. The auction is increasingly crowded by subsidized Chinese marketplaces.

Market Drivers & Auction Dynamics

• Who is Buying the Market? Temu is actively “buying” the auction floor, forcing higher CPCs for all players. Their sustained 20%+ share requires massive, venture-backed capital deployment to acquire market share at the expense of short-term profitability.
• Seasonal vs. Perpetual Spend: Amazon flexes its budget seasonally (Q4 dominance), relying on organic brand equity during off-peak months. Conversely, Temu and AliExpress maintain perpetual, high-velocity spend to build user bases, fundamentally altering the competitive baseline of the Shopping auction.