Ecommerce Trends 2026: Google AI, Temu & CPC Forecast

Episode Transcript

00:00:00
Chris:
Hello ladies and gents. My name is Chris and I want to welcome you to our beloved podcast, Growing eCommerce. It’s the last episode of this year. I can’t believe it. And I have to start with one thing: your outfit is just awesome.

00:00:20
Mike:
Well, I like your outfit too. It feels like the first episode where I’m not overdressed—I might even be underdressed! For our listeners who might be wondering, we wanted to stand out today, so we are wearing matching Christmas tree pajamas.

00:00:44
Chris:
Mine is a bit too small, honestly. I went for a size small to show off my biceps since I’m hitting the gym again, but it’s definitely too tight. I should have gone for an extra small to really double down, and then maybe given it to my wife afterwards.

00:01:04
Mike:
This one fits nicely, though I’m missing a cocoa or something to complete the look. I should mention, for those not watching on camera, Chris also has these tasteful Christmas socks on, and his PJs are tucked into them. By the way, I just want to highlight that I did the intro today!

00:01:42
Chris:
It’s getting better; I’m proud of you. So, ladies and gents, for this last episode of the year, we’ve talked so much about technical, industry, and business-related stuff. Today we’ll still talk business, but we want to make it a bit more personal.

00:02:08
Mike:
Let’s start with a classic but powerful question: what were your highlights and lowlights of the year? It was a long year with many of both.

00:02:30
Chris:
Good question. You don’t want to be too recency biased, but it’s crazy because I feel like January 2025 just happened. One lowlight is simply how insanely fast this year went. The pace of change and the volume of information were overwhelming. We are all in this environment trying to keep up.

00:03:16
Mike:
For me personally, it’s an occupational hazard. Part of my role is to help the company stay up to date, and the signal-to-noise ratio feels off sometimes, particularly with AI. What is hype and what is not? On one hand, it’s exhilarating, but you can’t always be “on” 100% of the time. Sometimes I feel like Neo being unplugged from the Matrix after having a deluge of information plugged straight into his brain stem.

00:04:39
Chris:
I feel that way too. As Chief Content Officer, I’m forced to zoom out all the time. Five years ago, it was much easier to keep up with the industry. It’s an interesting time for mankind, but the train is moving so fast. On a positive note, working together with you on our presentations and conventions has been a major highlight. You curate information at the right level for me to understand, and I’ve really enjoyed digging into tactical stuff again.

00:06:03
Mike:
The feeling is mutual. Preparing for those conference talks—doing four two-hour sessions in two days—was intense, but I love the conversations we have in those settings.

00:07:01
Chris:
Another personal highlight was getting back on stage. Before Mike Ryan became “the” Mike Ryan, I was the one representing Smec on stage. You took over and did a great job, but going back on stage together was a treat. I don’t feel any pressure standing next to you because if there’s a critical question I can’t answer, I just pass it to you!

00:08:15
Mike:
It’s been great teamwork. But to talk about lowlights—it was a tough year for many. Seeing our clients face so much pressure from the market and within the Google ecosystem is hard, especially when your hands are tied by market conditions or business models.

00:10:15
Chris:
I’ve spoken to many C-suite executives, and there isn’t a lot of confidence that the first half of 2026 will be substantially different. It’s going to be tight.

00:11:10
Mike:
I don’t see the fundamentals changing much in the near term. We would need a singular event to reignite confidence. On the “nice list” for this year, however, is Google.

00:12:27
Chris:
I agree. Shout out to the Google reps, especially Carla. They seem generally interested in supporting us. On the product strategy side, there’s less friction now. A year ago, we didn’t have transparency into campaign types like Performance Max, but the new technology they are rolling out, like AI Max, is built with transparency and controls from day one.

00:14:18
Mike:
Things are better now, and I’m grateful for that. Benchmark that against the direction Meta or TikTok are going, and Google is definitely on the nice list. Now, who is on the naughty list? Temu.

00:15:00
Chris:
You were called “Mr. T” for a reason because you covered Temu like no one else. We’re a relatively small company, but your reporting got attention from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. You actually met with them, right?

00:15:42
Mike:
I did. It was fascinating, though I couldn’t quite understand their agenda. It felt like they wanted to know what questions I had for them. I asked about gross margins, of course. They were friendly and amicable, but the formality felt a bit fake. They were interested in what our client base thought of their local seller initiatives, and I told them frankly that I don’t think it’s that attractive for multi-brand retailers who see Temu as a competitor.

00:19:30
Chris:
Mark Zuckerberg is also on my naughty list. Despite 98% of Meta’s revenue coming from ads, he continuously talks down about the idea of ads and the “middlemen” like agencies and in-house teams. It feels wrong.

00:21:13
Mike:
He has transformed himself lately, though—the whole “CEO human growth hormone” and fighting thing.

00:22:17
Chris:
Speaking of growth, I’ve been focusing on sleep to help my testosterone levels. Lack of sleep was a lowlight this year, but the reason for it—my two boys—is my absolute highlight. My newborn just turned one. I’m looking forward to the holidays with them.

00:24:24
Mike:
Having kids is a game changer. I moved to Austria recently, and the holidays here have reinvigorated me. I’m “Mr. Christmas” now.

00:25:36
Chris:
Looking toward 2026, I’m an optimist. I think the new “agentic commerce” environment will provide opportunities for online retailers who are smart and have the right partners. Google is working on features like agentic price monitoring and checkout. By this time next year, we’ll have a much more robust AI commerce offering.

00:29:43
Mike:
Disruption is good because it allows mid-sized retailers to stand out by being smarter, rather than just having the biggest war chest. I also have a gut feeling that we might see a slowdown in CPC and CPA development, which would be great for everyone.

00:31:42
Chris:
What are your New Year’s resolutions?

00:32:06
Mike:
Professionally, to stay at the front of the industry and do more in-depth reporting like the State of PMax report. Personally, I want to be more present for people and overcome the “information overload” that made me ghost people earlier this year.

00:35:16
Chris:
My professional resolution is to be a better listener and leader, and to spend more time in client meetings to truly understand their pains. Personally, I want to be a better dad and husband.

00:36:43
Mike:
We’ll have to see if we’re brave enough to walk around the office in these matching pajamas for the rest of the day.

00:37:02
Chris:
I’ll let you do the outro since I did the intro.

Mike: Thank you for joining another episode of Growing eCommerce, brought to you by Smarter Ecommerce (smec). You can learn more at smarter-ecommerce.com. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and we’ll see you next year!