Google Goes a Box Too Far — Plus Why OpenAI’s $100B Ad Dream Doesn’t Add Up

Episode Transcript

Mike 00:00:02
Welcome to another episode of Growing Ecommerce. I’m one of your hosts, Mike, and with me, as always, is Chris. Hey, Chris. I’m showing another Red Bull. Maybe this is my starting point, but we had a good one last time. We’re not talking about product placement today; we’re going to be talking about whether or not Google went a bridge too far—a box too far. You’ll find out what that means in a second. Also, new data from eMarketer calls into question what’s going on with OpenAI ads as a category and gives us some insight into where this category stands with Google today. It’s very interesting.

Chris 00:00:41
Yes, I love these two topics. I think they’re very much adjacent to what we talked about in the last episode. Mike, let’s jump right into it. Where are we starting: Google or eMarketer?

Mike 00:01:06
I’ll start with Google. This is based on data from Sensor Tower. They look at different App Store rankings, and something interesting happened. I’m looking at category rankings for DuckDuckGo. In case anyone listening doesn’t know DuckDuckGo, it is basically a Bing search wrapper. It’s an alternate search provider positioned around privacy. Right now, they’re positioned around not using AI in their products unless you want that tracking.

Mike 00:02:29
DuckDuckGo is having a pretty good couple of months. In both the iOS App Store and the Android App Store, they went to the moon. For example, in the top three applications, they went from around position 400 to the top 100. By another measure, they went from position 175 to around position 40. These are really big, sustained jumps. This all happened around May 20th and May 21st, 2026.

Chris 00:02:51
My assumption would be that DuckDuckGo released a massively impacting feature. They must have improved their product, right? What happened? Or was it something else?

Mike 00:03:00
They did nothing. Maybe they found some marketing, but there was no major feature release on the DuckDuckGo side. They’ve been doing good work, but this isn’t related to their product.

Chris 00:03:22
What do you think it’s related to? Is it related to what happened to a competitor product—specifically the small one, Google?

Mike 00:03:42
Google, the “Big G.” Remind me, Chris, was there anything happening around then? Oh, that’s right, there was Google I/O and Google Marketing Live.

Chris 00:03:53
Yes, at Google I/O, they announced the biggest change ever, in my opinion. I think many would see it the same way. It’s the biggest change to Google Search as a product because they’re rolling out something new. It’s no longer going to be a search bar; it’s going to be a search box. That was my joke at the start—did Google go a box too far?

Mike 00:04:26
Now we go full circle. Ladies and gents, this is how smart the intro was. This is a high-production podcast! All jokes aside, it sounds ridiculous, right? From a bar to a box. But if you look into it, the box is a big change to how you search. What is this implying in terms of how Google wants you to search? The box is substantially different from the beloved bar we got used to.

Chris 00:05:25
Google has been saying that search queries are getting two or three times longer already. Now, their main search product is moving into a box. I’m not a UI/UX expert, but it’s pretty obvious that if you have a bar or a box, it will influence how much you type. There will be a priming effect.

Mike 00:05:44
The reason people are reacting to this is because this is the interface we’ve become familiar with from ChatGPT and elsewhere; it’s basically an AI chat interface. At this point, you can upload images and other things. This is a major change. Think about it, Chris: how does Google plan to report search terms and match keywords if queries are getting so long and have images attached? “I want shoes like this,” and you upload an image.

Chris 00:06:44
What’s the reference point? There are massive implications. Google is doubling down on their vision that everything will be conversational and Gemini-powered. They have massive confidence in the product landscape to deal with these conversational search queries. The question, though, is if the market is ready for it. Clearly, not everyone is, and DuckDuckGo is one indication of that from the consumer side.

Chris 00:07:34
What about the online retailers and the operational teams? There’s so much going on. I stated in the last episode that maybe we were hard on Google because they seemed slow or hesitant. Now, maybe the pace is too high.

Mike 00:08:06
It certainly could be. This is a clear indication that a significant share of Google users are not happy with this new box. We’ll see what happens to DuckDuckGo’s market share. It’s a clear sign that for some consumers, this is too much. For retailers, the pace of change is exhausting and relentless.

Mike 00:08:56
There’s that famous Bill Gates quote that things don’t change as much as you expect in the short term, but more than you expect in the long term. I feel that every day. Everything is changing, but everything is staying the same, too. It’s really weird.

Chris 00:09:18
Circling back to Google Marketing Live, we are a specialized company focusing on Google, Microsoft, and Meta. We focus on everything they release. But even for experts, it’s a lot—not just understanding the technology, but the implications. How does this interfere with everything else I do? I think it’s too much.

Mike 00:10:09
I don’t think Google would disagree with you. It is a ton. Maybe this is a bit off-track, but we talked about AI Max for shopping and the massive capabilities it has now. The more I think about it, the more I think shopping becomes so powerful again that some retailers might ask why they should even do PMax.

Chris 00:11:01
That’s certainly not in the interest of Google since PMax is their main campaign type. I’ve asked Googlers directly if they are aware of this. AI Max for shopping is classic shopping with great controls, and it can create feed-based DAs. It can cover text ads, the search network, and these new AI formats. It can do everything PMax can do for the search network with better controls and reporting.

Mike 00:11:55
Then you have Demand Gen, which does everything PMax can do for video and display but with better controls. No one I’ve talked to liked the idea of search and video/display being forced together besides Google. If you can have the best of both worlds, why wouldn’t you? This is an indication that the pace Google is running at might be too fast for them because the strategic misalignments are obvious.

Chris 00:12:47
From a technological perspective, I think we made the right decision to double down on both campaign types: Standard Shopping and PMax. However you see it, Standard Shopping is here to stay. We anticipated a while ago that shopping was going to have a comeback, and steering it with a powerful platform was the right move.

Mike 00:14:14
Going back to the initial thought: there’s a strong indication that consumers aren’t happy about the change from bar to box. But Google is moving so fast that retailers and experts are struggling. I love a lot of what Google is doing, but I don’t even see the pressure right now. ChatGPT is building fast, but they aren’t necessarily the fastest innovators in this specific space.

Chris 00:15:28
We’ll monitor if this is sustainable. We’ll be talking about DuckDuckGo ads as the biggest opportunity ever! Digital was the fourth wave, retail media is the fifth, and the sixth wave is DuckDuckGo. We will look back at this episode and laugh. Let’s talk about the eMarketer data.

Mike 00:15:47
One thing we’ve been presenting a lot is a framework where classic search goes through some kind of decline while AI services and AI ads become ascendant. Depending on the speed, that’s either disruptive or manageable. This new eMarketer data gives us a status quo and an outlook.

Chris 00:16:42
I’m not a huge fan of eMarketer data; sometimes it feels a bit like clickbait or extrapolating too far. But it’s worth a conversation. They are quite bold with their predictions.

Mike 00:17:27
They have a stacked bar chart from 2026 through 2030 showing three categories of AI advertising spend. The categories are: AI search adjacent (ads above or below an AI overview), AI conversational search (ads inside AI mode or Copilot), and ads inside AI chatbots like ChatGPT. In 2026, they estimate AI advertising in the US will sum up to 32 billion.

Mike 00:18:37
For context, Google’s total search spend in the US will be upwards of 100 billion. So we’re talking about a third of the market, which is a lot but not overwhelming. According to eMarketer, 80% of that is AI search adjacent. That’s not surprising because AI overviews are triggering on many searches now.

Chris 00:19:41
Why is 2030 such a big date? It’s a favorite theme on this podcast.

Mike 00:20:05
2030 is the year OpenAI wants to cross 100 billion with their ads business, which would make them as big as Google is now. Most of that revenue would be chatbot-driven. According to eMarketer, the total addressable market in 2030 for ads inside chatbots is about 6 billion.

Chris 00:21:16
On one hand, this tells you the 100 billion Sam Altman is aiming for might be unrealistic. On the other hand, it shows that AI ads are a real, relevant thing, but it puts it into context. It’s not changing everything overnight. It’s a tiny part of the whole cake right now.

Mike 00:21:50
The number they peg for all AI advertising in 2030 is 68 billion. Google is already over 100 billion. Even if it doubles, Google’s revenue isn’t standing still. This chart will certainly be wrong in some way. I think AI ads will be bigger than 68 billion by then, but the shares will be different.

Chris 00:23:10
The takeaway for a CMO or CDO is that these surfaces are important and will drive revenue, but you have to put them into context. Don’t forget your bread and butter, which will still be your core campaigns in four years. Everything is changing, but everything is staying the same.

Mike 00:24:23
There’s a huge mandate in organizations right now—it’s a burning hot topic. It’s good to be prepared, but you have to pick your battles and prioritize.

Chris 00:24:45
I see a lot of FOMO with our clients. They don’t want to miss the train. But you’re not missing it; it’s just not changing the nature of your business yet. E-commerce is not the same as publishers. Google has a commitment to driving ad revenue on their owned and operated properties, which will play out differently than it did for organic visibility on the open web.

Chris 00:26:39
It’s more about being prepared than overreacting. Most retailers face limited resources—limited talent and money. You have to make trade-off decisions. To double down on something that won’t be as relevant as you think is an issue. Be as efficient as possible, but don’t forget your core campaigns within the Google and Microsoft stack.

Mike 00:27:29
Let’s leave it at that. It is what it is.

Chris 00:27:50
Looking forward to the next episode. Very good handshake, Mike.

Mike 00:28:07
We’re going to play tennis for sure. I don’t even know how to hold a tennis racket, but it doesn’t matter because I can’t literally play! Thanks everyone for listening. This has been another episode of Growing Ecommerce, brought to you by Smarter Ecommerce. You can learn more at [link removed]. Please give us a shout-out on social media or leave a review. We really appreciate it. See you next time.