Google Meridian and Temu’s ad shift: What marketers need to know

Marketing mix modelling has been around for a while, but recent developments are putting it back in the spotlight. The loss of traditional tracking methods due to privacy changes and cookie deprecation has left marketers scrambling for alternatives. Enter Google’s Meridian Model—an MMM solution that leverages some unique data sources to bring fresh insights to the table. Mike Ryan from Growing Ecommerce podcast explored this in detail, as well as a noticeable dip in Temu’s ad activity. Here’s a rundown of what’s happening and why it matters.

The rise of Marketing Mix Modelling: Why MMM is back on the radar

Google’s launch of the Meridian Model for marketing mix modeling (MMM) can be seen as a direct response to Meta’s Robyn, a similar open-source MMM tool that has been making waves for the past few years. With Robyn, Meta provided marketers with a powerful way to analyze their media investments using a Bayesian approach, setting a new standard for transparency and flexibility in attribution modeling. This tool gained traction as privacy regulations tightened and cookie-based tracking became less reliable, giving advertisers a way to assess channel effectiveness without relying solely on first-party data. Faced with Robyn’s growing influence and the need for credible alternatives in the MMM space, Google introduced Meridian to reassert its role as the central analytics hub in the marketing landscape.

While both Meridian and Robyn share the common goal of helping advertisers optimize their media spend, Google aims to differentiate Meridian by leveraging its unique data assets. Meridian’s use of search volume as a demand proxy and integration with YouTube’s reach and frequency data provide marketers with deeper insights that aren’t available through Meta’s platform. By doing so, Google seeks not only to match Robyn’s capabilities but to surpass them by offering a more robust view of the customer journey, particularly for search and video-heavy campaigns. The launch of Meridian underscores a broader industry trend toward open-source measurement solutions, while also reflecting Google’s strategic push to maintain its competitive edge in the face of evolving market dynamics and shifting advertiser needs.

What’s new with Google Meridian?

Meridian isn’t just another MMM tool—it’s Google’s bid to regain its position as the “source of truth” in the analytics world. Unlike its predecessor, LightweightMMM, which was more of an experimental prototype, Meridian is getting the full backing from Google. The tool employs a Bayesian approach, running countless simulations to find the most likely outcomes and allowing you to incorporate prior information, such as past incrementality tests or lift studies.

Here’s what sets Meridian apart:

• Search volume as a proxy for demand: By incorporating search trends, Meridian provides a real-time snapshot of consumer interest. This data is used to gauge market demand, helping advertisers spot hidden opportunities or emerging threats.
• YouTube reach and frequency data integration: Meridian leverages YouTube’s unique data on reach and frequency, providing a more nuanced understanding of ad impact, particularly for brands running video-heavy campaigns.

Practical insights: The inclusion of search volume and YouTube data means that Meridian can help marketers understand ad saturation and “ad stock decay”—a fancy way of saying how long an ad’s effect lasts after being viewed. These insights can reveal whether you’re oversaturating one channel while neglecting another, guiding better budget allocation decisions.

But don’t get too excited just yet

Meridian isn’t for everyone. Like many of Google’s open-source tools, it requires technical resources to implement properly. Think of it as a high-end sports car—you need a skilled driver (data scientist) to get the most out of it. For those with technical expertise, though, Meridian provides the ability to customize measurement and optimization in ways that were previously off-limits on mainstream ad platforms.

Temu’s advertising slowdown: A strategic shift?

After aggressively scaling ad spend in 2023, Temu hit the brakes in early 2024. Its presence in Google Ads dropped from 80% in December to 60% in February, while activity on Meta saw a similar decline.

What’s going on?
Temu might be recalibrating its strategy due to market saturation or shifting priorities. Whatever the reason, the pullback could temporarily ease ad costs for other advertisers.

What it means for you

Temu’s ad slowdown might offer a brief window of opportunity for brands to increase visibility at a lower cost. Plus, tools like Meridian can help you fine-tune budget allocation and make the most of this period of reduced competition.

Next steps:

1. Explore MMM tools like Meridian for deeper insights into ad effectiveness.
2. Monitor competitor activity using tools like Google Merchant Center to identify shifts in ad spend.
3. Leverage open-source tools if your team has the resources, to get an edge with custom analytics.

The digital advertising landscape is always changing. Staying ahead means adapting quickly and making smarter use of the tools at your disposal. For more insights, catch Mike Ryan’s full Growing Ecommerce episode below or have a look at the most recent episodes of the podcast.